Will house prices really go up 20% over the next 3 years?

House prices are predicted to grow between 9% and 20% over the next 3 years. Mr Mortgage disagrees. Here's why.

Experts are rarely good at predicting the future because their minds are full of facts from the past. I have a problem with future house price forecasts and it is this almost never materialises.

When you have someone who has a vested interest in the result [QBE is a house insurance player] then take house price forecasts with a grain of salt.

A QBE "survey" compiled by BIS Shrapnel says house prices will growth between 9 and 20 per cent in Australia's capital cities over the next three years. Really? So I guess that means that you should be paying 9% to 20% more for your insurance then? I see!

The biggest problems I see with House prices forecasting using median house prices

1. The median price is not an actual price. Any house price survey relies on the notion of the median price of a home. These are the homes that are sold.
2. There are two problems with this.
   1. Many homes sold are new, and therefore are usually better than an established home and worth more to buyers.
   2. Most established homes are dolled up prior to sale [paint jobs, renovations, staging and the like]. They are "pushed" and "promoted" and "marketed" to fetch a higher price. Even then many are not currently selling.

We need a segmentation of median house prices

At least if we got a segmentation of house sales [new apartments, new homes, established homes etc, I would be more comfortable believing these figures. That won't happen because the output is designed to deceive buyers and sellers to believinghouse prices are higher than they are.

Here's an example of how median house prices distort true values.

A new apartment block is released for sale with the penthouses at 2.2 million a piece, and apartments from $400,000.

One of the penthouses is sold, and two older units down the road sell for $220,000.

How median house prices are calculated

The median house price is $2.64 million divided by three. That gives a median unit price of $880,000! Whilst this may seem a silly example it is how median house prices are calculated.

Home buyers might begin to believe that the older units down the road are worth more than $220,000, and the $400,000 are worth more too.

Can you see why median house prices is not a good guide?

What about interest rates affecting housing prices?

Australia's housing market [some say housing bubble] has so far fared better than most parts of the US and the UK markets.

In the US for instance they have 30 year fixed interest rates retailing at under 5% pa., and they could go lower to help keep people in their homes, let alone prop up the housing market. No such luck here in Australia.

Australia's mortgage interest rates will rise over the next twelve months

We face a home mortgage interest rate in Australia of over 8% over the next 12 months.

Whilst the "experts say fix your mortgage interest rates now, that's fine if you are buying now or if you have a variable mortgage already. If you are buying in 12 months time that is not going to help you because I believe that rates will be as much as 1.25% higher than they are now.

Result? I see "median" house prices moderating, and home prices for Joe average softening over the next 12 months.

What Mr Mortgage believes.

Anytime is a good time to buy a house that is well priced and what you need to live in, and is affordable, if you intend to live there for more than 5 years. If not its better to rent and invest the savings and housing costs. If you are an investor, there are better places to park your money.

Australia's "Housing bubble" will not pop but lose some of its froth and just shrink to a less inflated size.

Lower returns for property investors, and more certain yields and easier picking elsewhere will keep investors out of the housing market, and moderate home values.

Future house prices will not be a mirror of our past. The RBA has it eye on house prices and the board will do what ever it takes to keep a lid on the housing market to ensure affordability for future home buyers.

The baby boomer influence has run its course in the general housing market, and as they move out of established housing this will take more heat out of house prices.

Author: Rick Adlam Mr Mortgage

Australia's Mortgage rates to stay on hold? IMF says it should!

IMF say to Reserve Bank of Australia leave interest rates till European debt situation is clear.

Mr Mortgage has been saying for months that interest rates should not rise till after the new year when the World Economy has played out [amongst many other reasons]. This last fewweeks everyone and his dog has been saying rates will rise in October. We have been asking why should rates rise at all this year?
Countless other so-called experts, as reported in all the media, have been saying a rise is on for October. Many Bank economists have switched to the October rate rise will happen theory.
With the financial markets now betting on a mortgage rise, and all  the big banks trying to talk up a rate rise because they will make a killing on the currency markets, the pressure is on the RBA. When rates do rise the Big banks can then slip in their own mortgage rate rises on top of the RBA's  and hope their customers don't notice. But there are too many families in Australia that will suffer mortgage stress if rates do Increase.
The major banks are using mortgage interest rates as milking cows for record profits.

This is the biggest beat up I have seen since the Iraq War WMD.

Why the RBA will leave official rates on hold.

1. European Debt crisis should hold off interest rates raises till into next year.
2. The RBA enjoy second guessing the financial markets who seek to profit on their decisions. They are Independent and like to remind the markets of this.

The IMF agrees with Mr Mortgage on the absence of reason to raise rates.

Well the IMF now agrees with Mr Mortgage, and says a bust may be closer than anyone expects, with a risk that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe may again throw world financial markets into turmoil. This is the second recession that many having been saying could happen. In other words, the US recovery is a "dead cat bounce".Where is the job growth, the housing market recovery, and the shoppers in the US picture? Was the US stimulus too small to work? And will the US Fed go negative with Interest rates? And if they do will the $AU dollar be overpriced?

IMF advises RBA to hold off on lifting Mortgage rates

The IMF advised the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold off lifting interest rates. "The Reserve Bank has scope to wait for the outlook to become clearer," the fund said. There is no impending disaster to happen if it leaves rates as is.
The RBA board is meeting next Tuesday and was widely  tipped to increase rates from the current 4.5 per cent to 4.75%.
But as many people know, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor and Board likes to foil currency gamblers who try to second guess Board decisions. The RBAwins when currency traders lose.
In any case a resulting higher dollar is bad for Australia in many ways, as it hurts exporters, farmers and tourism in Australia.
Expect to see the dollar crash in value in the coming days, as the bets on an interest rate rise are switched.
Author: Mr Mortgage